New research reveals how tracking heat buildup in the North Atlantic could improve forecasts of extreme European summer temperatures several years in advance.
Context:
Europe is facing increasingly frequent and intense summer heatwaves, with serious societal and economic consequences, affecting infrastructure, agriculture, and human health. Accurately predicting these extreme events is therefore crucial to help mitigate these impacts. However, traditional climate prediction systems have struggled to forecast these extreme events accurately, especially several years in advance. This study aims to enhance decadal prediction skill, focusing on how examining heat accumulation in the North Atlantic ocean could improve our ability to predict anomalously warm European summer temperature several years in advance.
Key findings
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- The study finds that heat buildup in the North Atlantic, particularly along the North Atlantic Current, precedes anomalously warm European summers by up to three years.
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- The novel ensemble selection method, selecting model simulations that reflect this ocean heat signal, shows higher correlation with observed data and improved prediction skill, highest in lead year three.
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- The method enhances both short term (1-3 years) and long term (up to 9 years) forecasts. The approach also improves predictions of the number of hot summer days, making the findings valuable for practical applications like public health planning.
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- The approach is grounded in a coupled ocean-atmosphere mechanism that can be integrated into existing decadal prediction systems.
Implications
This research offers a promising step forward in the effort to predict extreme heat events in Europe several years in advance. By focusing on a specific ocean-atmosphere interaction in the North Atlantic, the study shows that it’s possible to improve both the accuracy and usefulness of climate forecasts. The demonstrated improvements represent meaningful progress towards identifying predictable components of the climate system. The approach is also compatible with existing climate models, meaning it could be adopted relatively quickly by forecasting centers. Improving decadal predictions in this way could help governments, businesses, and communities better prepare for future heatwaves—whether by adapting infrastructure, planning for energy demand, or protecting vulnerable populations. Overall, the findings highlight the importance of integrating North Atlantic dynamics into climate prediction frameworks to support more reliable long-term planning and adaptation to extreme heat events.
Reference: Wallberg, L., Suarez-Gutierrez, L., Matei, D., Krieger, D., & Müller, W. A. (2025). Anomalously warm european summers predicted more accurately by considering sub-decadal north atlantic ocean heat accumulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 52, e2024GL111895. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111895
Keywords: European summer temperature extremes, novel ensemble selection, North Atlantic ocean, decadal prediction skill
