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Journal papers

2026
  • Delgado-Torres, C., Donat, M. G., Pérez-Zanón, N., et al. (2026). Seamless climate information from months to multiple years: constraining decadal predictions with seasonal predictions and past observations, and their comparison to multi-annual predictions. Earth Syst. Dynam. 17, 41–56. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-17-41-2026
    Keywords: seamless, seasonal, decadal, climate predictions, climate services.
  • Duzenli, E., Torralba, V., Delgado-Torres, C.,  et al. (2026). Added value of downscaling multivariate drought indices for seasonal climatic water-balance assessments. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ae5c22
    Keywords: SPEI, downscaling, GCM, standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, seasonal.
  • Moreno-Montes, S., Delgado-Torres, C., Marcos, R., Pérez-Zanón, N., Ramon, J., Duzenli, E., and Soret, A. (2026). Comparative Analysis of Statistical Downscaling Methods for Multi-Model Decadal Climate Predictions over Western Europe. Volume 42, 100639, Climate Services. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100639
    Keywords: statistical downscaling, decadal, climate predictions.
2025
  • Aranyossy, A., De Luca, P., Delgado-Torres, C., et al. (2025). Multi-annual predictions of hot, dry and hot-dry compound extremes. Earth System Dynamics. https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-16-2225-2025
    Keywords: multi-annual predictions, compound extremes.
  • Befort, D.J. and Kruschke, T. (2025). Decadal prediction of the probability of extreme seasons. Environmental Research Letters 20(5), p.054054. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adcc44
    Keywords: decadal predictions, extreme seasons, extreme heat.
  • Belušić, D. and Lind, P. (2025): Benefits of kilometer-scale climate modeling for winds in complex terrain: strong versus weak winds, Weather Clim. Dynam., 6, 863–877, https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-6-863-2025
    Keywords: wind speed, thermal circulations, downscaling, regional climate modelling
  • Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, E., Bilbao, R., Donohoe, A. and Materia, S., (2025). Record warmth of 2023 and 2024 resulted from ENSO transition and Northern Hemisphere absorbed shortwave anomalies. Geophysical Research Letters https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL115614
    Keywords: ENSO transition, global temperature, record warmth
  • Mahmood, R., Donat, M. G., Doblas-Reyes, F. J., and Tourigny, E. (2025). A Perfect-Model Perspective on the Signal-to-Noise Paradox in Initialized Decadal Predictions. J. Climate 38: 2841-2851. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0381.1 
    Keywords: decadal, signal‑to‑noise, perfect-model
  • Mayer, M., Balmaseda, M. A., Vitart, F., and Tietsche, S. (2025). Tropical Pacific Trends in the ECMWF Seasonal System and Implications for Predictions of the 2020-22 Triple-Dip La Niña. J. Climate 38: 2989-3003. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-24-0467.1
    Keywords: ENSO, seasonal, SEAS5, sea surface temperature.
  • Nicolì, D., Gualdi, S., and Athanasiadis, P.J (2025). Decadal predictions outperform climate projections in forecasting Mediterranean wintertime precipitation. Environ. Res. Lett. 20, 034034. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adb59e
    Keywords: decadal predictions, precipitation variability, Euro-Mediterranean sector, subpolar gyre.
  • Patrizio, C.R., Athanasiadis, P.J., Smith, D.M. and Nicolì, D., (2025) Ocean-atmosphere feedbacks key to NAO decadal predictability. npj Clim Atmos Sci 8, 146 (2025). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01027-7
    Keywords: North Atlantic Oscillation, decadal, predictability, decadal prediction systems.
  • Raganato, A., Adnan Abid, M. and Kucharski, F. (2025) The Combined Link of the Indian Ocean Dipole and ENSO with the North Atlantic–European Circulation during Early Boreal Winter in Reanalysis and the ECMWF SEAS5 Hindcast. Journal of Climate. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0703.1
  • Reale, M., Raganato, A., d’Andrea, F., Abid, M.A., Hochman, A., Chowdhury, N.R., Salon, S. and Kucharski, F., 2025. Response of early winter precipitation and storm activity in the North Atlantic–European–Mediterranean region to Indian Ocean SST variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 52(20), p.e2025GL116732. https://doi.org/10.1029/2025GL116732
    Keywords: winter precipitation, storm activity, sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction
  • Smith, D.M., Dunstone, N.J., Eade, R. et al. (2025). Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude. Nat. Clim. Chang. 15, 403-410. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-025-02277-2
    Keywords: NAO, uncertainty, multi-decadal, emergent constraint, signal-to-noise, projections.
  • Solaraju-Murali, B., Torralba, V., Delgado-Torres, C., Donat, M. G., Cos, P., González-Reviriego, N., Soret, A. and Doblas-Reyes, F.J. (2025). Constraining decadal climate predictions with seasonal forecasts: a step toward seamless multi-year climate information. Environmental Research Letters. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adfd73
    Keywords: ENSO, Seasonal to decadal predictions, seamless climate information, forecast skill.
  • Tsartsali, E.E., Yeager, S.G., Athanasiadis, P.J., Tibaldi, S. and Gualdi, S., 2025. Predictability of temperature
     extremes in multi-annual forecasts. Environmental Research Letters, 20(10), p.104004.
    https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/adfa3c
    Keywords: temperature extremes, multi-annual predictions, predictability sources
  • Thierry, V., Claustre, H., Pasqueron de Fommervault et al., (2025) Advancing ocean monitoring and knowledge for societal benefit: the urgency to expand Argo to OneArgo by 2030. Frontiers in Marine Science. https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2025.1593904 
  • Wang, F., Aldama-Campino, A., Belušić, D., et al. (2025). Interactions of urban heat islands and heat waves in Swedish cities under present and future climates. Urban Climate 59, 102286. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.uclim.2025.102286
    Keywords: urban heat islands, heat waves, heat stress adaptation.
  • Wallberg, L., Suarez‐Gutierrez, L., Matei,D., et al. (2025). Anomalously warm european summerspredicted more accurately by consideringsub‐decadal north atlantic ocean heataccumulation. Geophysical ResearchLetters 52, e2024GL111895. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL111895
    Keywords: summer temperature extremes, Europe, North Atlantic ocean, sub-decadal, prediction skill.
  • Weisheimer, A., Palmer, T., Leach, N. et al. (2025). Attributing the extreme 2022 Pakistan Rainfall to CO2-induced Climate Change using Seasonal Forecasts. Climate and Atmospheric Science. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-025-01136-3
    Keywords: seasonal forecasts, Pakistan rainfall.
2024
  • Cos P., Marcos-Matamoros R., Donat M. et al. (2024). Near-Term Mediterranean Summer Temperature Climate Projections: A Comparison of Constraining Methods. Journal of Climate37, 4367-4388. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0494.1.
    Keywords: multi-model; projections; constraining methods; summer temperature; Mediterranean.
  • Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Soret A. (2024). Decadal climate prediction and predictability for climate services. Doctoral Thesis. http://hdl.handle.net/2445/210812.
    Keywords: decadal prediction; climate services; thesis.
  • Donat, M. G., Mahmood R., Cos P., et al. (2024). Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations. Environmental Research: Climate 3, 035013. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad5463.
    Keywords: climate prediction; climate variability; climate change; constraining climate simulations.
  • Dunstone N. J., Smith, D. M., Atkinson, C., et al. (2024). Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?
    Atmospheric Science Letters, e1254. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1254.
    Keywords: atmospheric and climate dynamics, climate variability, impacts, extremes.
  • Ermis S., Leach N. J., Lott F. C. et al. (2024). Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts.
    Environmental Research: Climate, 3, 035001.     https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4200.
    Keywords: extreme weather; midlatitude cyclones; attribution; storm Eunice; forecast-based attribution.
  • Hansen, F., Belušić, D., and Wyser, K. (2024). Relationship between circulation types and extreme precipitation over Scandinavia is stable under climate change. Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2024GL109704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109704.
    Keywords: large ensemble; natural climate variability; extremes; forced response.
  • Karami M.P., Koenigk T., Schenk F. (2024). Unravelling the impact of subpolar gyre variability on climate extremes and variability: Insights from an ensemble atmospheric model study. EGU Abstract, EGU24-15292. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15292.
    Keywords: EGU; climate predictability; subpolar gyre; teleconnections; extremes; poster.
  • Leach, N.J., Roberts, C.D., Aengenheyster, M. et al. (2024). Heatwave attribution based on reliable operational weather forecasts.
    Nature Communications 15, 4530. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-48280-7.
    Keywords: extreme event; weather; heatwave; risk; adaptation; human influence.
  • Main, L., Sparrow, S., Weisheimer, A., and Wright, M. (2024). Skilful probabilistic medium-range precipitation and temperature forecasts over Vietnam for the development of a future dengue early warning system. Meteorological Applications, 31(4), e2222. https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2222.
    Keywords: predictive skill; meteorological variables; downscaling; epidemiology; urban areas.
  • Mindlin J., Vera C. S., Shepherd T. G. et al. (2024). Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective. Climate Services 34, 100480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100480.
    Keywords: Climatic impact-drivers; viticulture; Storylines; Model uncertainty.
  • Patterson, M., Befort, D. J., O’Reilly, C. H., et al. (2024). Drivers of the ECMWF SEAS5 seasonal forecast for the hot and dry European summer of 2022. Q J R Meteorol Soc. 2024, 1-18. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.4851
    Keywords: hindcast, initialisation, seasonal, temperature circulation, anomaly.
  • Pérez-Zanón, N. Agudetse, V., Baulenas, E., et al. (2024). Lessons learned from the co-development of operational climate forecast services for vineyards management. Climate Services 36, 100513. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100513 
    Keywords: climate services, co-development, forecast, viticulture, wine sector, seasonal.
  • Pohlmann H. and Müller W. A. (2024). The North Atlantic climate variability in single-forcing large ensemble simulations with MPI-ESM-LR.
    EGU Abstract, EGU24-1411. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1411.
    Keywords: EGU; variability; forcings; historical simulations; poster.
  • Rashid, I.U., Abid, M.A., Osman, M. et al. (2024). Predictability of the early summer surface air temperature over Western South Asia. Clim Dyn 62, 9361-9375. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07399-5
    Keywords: ENSO, interannual variability, predictability, SEAS5, skill, teleconnection.
  • Senan, R., Balmaseda, M. A., Molteni, F., et al (2024). The relative role of Indian and Pacific tropical heating as seasonal predictability drivers for the North Atlantic Oscillation. J. Geophys. Res. Atmos. 129, e2024JD041233. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041233
    Keywords: predictability, NAO, forcing, teleconnections, uncertainty.
  • Wright, M. J., Weisheimer, A., and Woollings, T. (2024). Multi-decadal skill variability in predicting the spatial patterns of ENSO events.
    Geophysical Research Letters, 51, e2023GL107971. https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107971.
    Keywords: El Niño Southern Oscillation; sea‐surface temperature; skill; hindcast; multi-decadal.
2023
  • Chou C., Marcos-Matamoros R., López-Nevado J. et al. (2023). Comparison of five strategies for seasonal prediction of bioclimatic indicators in the olive sector. Climate Services, 30, 100345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100345
    Keywords: climate services; olive sector; bioclimatic indicator; blending strategy.
  • Chou C., Marcos-Matamoros R., Palma Garcia L. et al. (2023). Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector. Climate Services, 30, 100343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100343
    Keywords: climate services; wine sector; bioclimatic indicator; blending strategy.
  • De Luca P., Delgado-Torres C., Mahmood R. et al. (2023). Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 094054. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf389
    Keywords: decadal variability; extremes; climate projections; near-term projections; adaptation.
  • Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Soret A. et al. (2023). Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 034031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1
    Keywords: decadal climate predictions; extremes; forecast quality assessment; CMIP6.
  • Donat, M. G., Delgado-Torres, C., De Luca, P. et al. (2023). How credibly do CMIP6 simulations capture historical mean and extreme precipitation changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102466. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102466
    Keywords: CMIP6; precipitation; extremes; trustworthiness; skill.
  • Dunstone, N., Smith, D.M., Hardiman, S.C. et al. (2023). Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022. Nature Communications 14, 6544. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42377-1
    Keywords: seasonal forecasts; extremes; skill; regional climate; early warning.
  • Liu, Y., Donat, M.G., England, M.H. et al. (2023). Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events. Nature Communications, 14, 6387. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9
    Keywords: predictability; ENSO; regional climate; interannual; decadal prediction.
  • Pérez-Zanón N., Ho A.C., Chou C. et al. (2023). CSIndicators: Get tailored climate indicators for applications in your sector. Climate Services, 30, 100393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100393
    Keywords: climate services; adaptation; climate prediction; sectoral applications.
  • Polkova I., Swingedouw D., Hermanson L. et al. (2023). Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Frontiers in Climate, 5:1273770. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770
    Keywords: AMOC; climate predictions; decadal; skill; subpolar gyre.

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