Journal papers

  • Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Soret A. (2024). Decadal climate prediction and predictability for climate services. Doctoral Thesis.
    Keywords: decadal prediction, climate services, thesis
  • Donat, M. G., Mahmood R., Cos P., et al. (2024). Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations. Environmental Research: Climate 3, 035013.
    Keywords: climate prediction, climate variability, climate change, constraining climate simulations
  • Dunstone N. J., Smith, D. M., Atkinson, C., et al. (2024). Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C? Atmospheric Science Letters, e1254.
    Keywords: atmospheric and climate dynamics; climate variability, change & impacts; global; scale; weather and climate prediction; weather/climate extremes.
  • Ermis S., Leach N. J., Lott F. C. et al. (2024). Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts. Environmental Research: Climate, 3, 035001.
    Keywords: extreme weather, midlatitude cyclones, attribution, storm Eunice, forecast-based attribution
  • Hansen, F., Belušić, D., and Wyser, K. (2024). Relationship between circulation types and extreme precipitation over Scandinavia is stable under climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL109704.
    Keywords: large ensemble, natural climate variability, extremes, forced response
  • Karami M., Koenigk T., Schenk F. (2024). Unravelling the impact of subpolar gyre variability on climate extremes and variability: Insights from an ensemble atmospheric model study. EGU Abstract, EGU24-15292.
    Keywords: EGU, climate predictability, subpolar gyre, teleconnections, extremes, poster
  • Mindlin J., Vera C. S., Shepherd T. G. et al. (2024). Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective. Climate Services 34, 100480.
    Keywords: Climatic impact-drivers, Viticulture, Storylines, Model uncertainty
  • Pohlmann H. and Müller W. A. (2024). The North Atlantic climate variability in single-forcing large ensemble simulations with MPI-ESM-LR. EGU Abstract, EGU24-1411.
    Keywords: EGU, variability, forcings, historical simulations, poster
  • Chou C., Marcos-Matamoros R., López-Nevado J. et al. (2023). Comparison of five strategies for seasonal prediction of bioclimatic indicators in the olive sector. Climate Services, 30, 100345.
    Keywords: climate services, olive sector, bioclimatic indicator, blending strategy
  • Chou C., Marcos-Matamoros R., Palma Garcia L. et al. (2023). Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector. Climate Services, 30, 100343.
    Keywords: climate services, wine sector, bioclimatic indicator, blending strategy
  • De Luca P., Delgado-Torres C., Mahmood R. et al. (2023). Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 094054.
    Keywords: decadal variability, extremes, climate projections, near-term projections, adaptation
  • Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Soret A. et al. (2023). Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 034031.
    Keywords: decadal climate predictions, extremes, forecast quality assessment, CMIP6
  • Donat, M. G., Delgado-Torres, C., De Luca, P. et al. (2023). How credibly do CMIP6 simulations capture historical mean and extreme precipitation changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102466.
    Keywords: CMIP6, precipitation, extremes, trustworthiness, skill
  • Dunstone, N., Smith, D.M., Hardiman, S.C. et al. (2023). Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022. Nature Communications 14, 6544.
    Keywords: seasonal forecasts, extremes, skill, regional climate, early warning
  • Liu, Y., Donat, M.G., England, M.H. et al. (2023). Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events. Nature Communications, 14, 6387.
    Keywords: predictability, ENSO, regional climate, interannual, decadal prediction
  • Patrizio, C. R., Athanasiadis P. J., Frankignoul C. et al. (2023). Improved Extratropical North Atlantic Atmosphere–Ocean Variability with Increasing Ocean Model Resolution. Journal of Climate, 36, 8403–8424.
    Keywords: variability, NAO, sea surface temperature, AMOC, anomalies
  • Pérez-Zanón N., Ho A.C., Chou C. et al. (2023). CSIndicators: Get tailored climate indicators for applications in your sector. Climate Services, 30, 100393.
    Keywords: climate services, adaptation, climate prediction, sectoral applications
  • Polkova I., Swingedouw D., Hermanson L. et al. (2023). Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Frontiers in Climate, 5:1273770.
    Keywords: AMOC, climate predictions, decadal, skill, subpolar gyre