Journal papers

• Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Soret A. (2024). Decadal climate prediction and predictability for climate services. Doctoral Thesis. http://hdl.handle.net/2445/210812.
  Keywords: decadal prediction, climate services, thesis

• Donat, M. G., Mahmood R., Cos P., et al. (2024). Improving the forecast quality of near-term climate projections by constraining internal variability based on decadal predictions and observations. Environmental Research: Climate 3, 035013. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad5463.
  Keywords: climate prediction, climate variability, climate change, constraining climate simulations

• Dunstone N. J., Smith, D. M., Atkinson, C., et al. (2024). Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C? Atmospheric Science Letters, e1254. https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1254.
  Keywords: atmospheric and climate dynamics; climate variability, change & impacts; global; scale; weather and climate prediction; weather/climate extremes.

• Ermis S., Leach N. J., Lott F. C. et al. (2024). Event attribution of a midlatitude windstorm using ensemble weather forecasts. Environmental Research: Climate, 3, 035001. https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/ad4200.
  Keywords: extreme weather, midlatitude cyclones, attribution, storm Eunice, forecast-based attribution

• Hansen, F., Belušić, D., and Wyser, K. (2024). Relationship between circulation types and extreme precipitation over Scandinavia is stable under climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett., 51, e2024GL109704. https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109704.
  Keywords: large ensemble, natural climate variability, extremes, forced response

• Karami M., Koenigk T., Schenk F. (2024). Unravelling the impact of subpolar gyre variability on climate extremes and variability: Insights from an ensemble atmospheric model study. EGU Abstract, EGU24-15292. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-15292.
  Keywords: EGU, climate predictability, subpolar gyre, teleconnections, extremes, poster

• Mindlin J., Vera C. S., Shepherd T. G. et al. (2024). Assessment of plausible changes in Climatic Impact-Drivers relevant for the viticulture sector: A storyline approach with a climate service perspective. Climate Services 34, 100480. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2024.100480.
  Keywords: Climatic impact-drivers, Viticulture, Storylines, Model uncertainty

• Pohlmann H. and Müller W. A. (2024). The North Atlantic climate variability in single-forcing large ensemble simulations with MPI-ESM-LR. EGU Abstract, EGU24-1411. https://doi.org/10.5194/egusphere-egu24-1411.
  Keywords: EGU, variability, forcings, historical simulations, poster

• Chou C., Marcos-Matamoros R., López-Nevado J. et al. (2023). Comparison of five strategies for seasonal prediction of bioclimatic indicators in the olive sector. Climate Services, 30, 100345. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100345
  Keywords: climate services, olive sector, bioclimatic indicator, blending strategy

• Chou C., Marcos-Matamoros R., Palma Garcia L. et al. (2023). Advanced seasonal predictions for vine management based on bioclimatic indicators tailored to the wine sector. Climate Services, 30, 100343. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100343
  Keywords: climate services, wine sector, bioclimatic indicator, blending strategy

• De Luca P., Delgado-Torres C., Mahmood R. et al. (2023). Constraining decadal variability regionally improves near-term projections of hot, cold and dry extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 094054. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acf389
  Keywords: decadal variability, extremes, climate projections, near-term projections, adaptation

• Delgado-Torres C., Donat M.G., Soret A. et al. (2023). Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes. Environmental Research Letters, 18, 034031. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acbbe1
  Keywords: decadal climate predictions, extremes, forecast quality assessment, CMIP6

• Donat, M. G., Delgado-Torres, C., De Luca, P. et al. (2023). How credibly do CMIP6 simulations capture historical mean and extreme precipitation changes? Geophysical Research Letters, 50, e2022GL102466. https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL102466
  Keywords: CMIP6, precipitation, extremes, trustworthiness, skill

• Dunstone, N., Smith, D.M., Hardiman, S.C. et al. (2023). Windows of opportunity for predicting seasonal climate extremes highlighted by the Pakistan floods of 2022. Nature Communications 14, 6544. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42377-1
  Keywords: seasonal forecasts, extremes, skill, regional climate, early warning

• Liu, Y., Donat, M.G., England, M.H. et al. (2023). Enhanced multi-year predictability after El Niño and La Niña events. Nature Communications, 14, 6387. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-023-42113-9
  Keywords: predictability, ENSO, regional climate, interannual, decadal prediction

• Patrizio, C. R., Athanasiadis P. J., Frankignoul C. et al. (2023). Improved Extratropical North Atlantic Atmosphere–Ocean Variability with Increasing Ocean Model Resolution. Journal of Climate, 36, 8403–8424. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-23-0230.1
  Keywords: variability, NAO, sea surface temperature, AMOC, anomalies

• Pérez-Zanón N., Ho A.C., Chou C. et al. (2023). CSIndicators: Get tailored climate indicators for applications in your sector. Climate Services, 30, 100393. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2023.100393
  Keywords: climate services, adaptation, climate prediction, sectoral applications

• Polkova I., Swingedouw D., Hermanson L. et al. (2023). Initialization shock in the ocean circulation reduces skill in decadal predictions of the North Atlantic subpolar gyre. Frontiers in Climate, 5:1273770. https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1273770
  Keywords: AMOC, climate predictions, decadal, skill, subpolar gyre