Paper Briefings
Paper briefings are short summaries prepared for publications from ASPECT researchers that are of societal, policy or sectoral interest. The briefings highlight key messages from the study, and potential implications or applications of the findings.
Exploring the decadal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation and its links to ocean-atmosphere interactions
New research shows that interactions between the ocean and atmosphere are key to predicting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on decadal timescales. As the NAO is a key driver of European weather and climate, this finding could help improve decadal predictions of European climate.
The value of decadal predictions for forecasting Mediterranean wintertime precipitation
A recent study comparing state-of-the-art climate models demonstrates that decadal climate predictions are significantly more skilful than longer-term climate projections at forecasting near-term winter rainfall anomalies over Southern Europe and North Africa, providing useful climate information for decision-making over the next five to ten years.
Exploring global predictability of heatwaves and cold spells up to two years in advance
New research highlights how a leading climate prediction system could predict extreme temperature events up to two years in advance in several regions around the world.
Anomalously Warm European Summers Predicted More Accurately by Considering Sub-Decadal North Atlantic Ocean Heat Accumulation
New research reveals how tracking heat buildup in the North Atlantic could improve forecasts of extreme European summer temperatures several years in advance. Context: Europe
Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude
A pivotal piece of research – published in the journal Nature Climate Change and produced with funding from the ASPECT program – has found that
Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?
A recent study shows that 2024 will likely (76% chance) be a new record year, with a 1-in-3 chance of exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Although a one-year temporary exceedance of 1.5°C would not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement target, this forecast highlights how close we are now to this threshold.