ASPECT partners working on Temporal Combining of Predictions and Projections met in Oxford from 30 June to 1 July for a hybrid workshop, taking a deep dive into the different methods each partner organisation is developing. The primary goal of the discussions was to assess progress in methodological research and development, and to evaluate the potential and limitations of various temporal‑combining methods in user applications. ASPECT partners who are involved in climate services prototype development and user engagement also joined the discussions.
Initialised climate predictions and projections—particularly those spanning monthly to multi‑decadal timescales—offer valuable climate information with sufficient lead time to inform decision‑making. However, the utility of such forecasts is often constrained by temporal gaps, differences between prediction systems, and the uncertainties that characterise climate information across different time horizons.
The ASPECT project aims to deliver seamless climate information that addresses the challenge of providing user‑tailored climate information. One promising approach for achieving continuity is to develop and test methods for temporally combining climate predictions and/or projections across timescales. The main objective of this research methodology is to provide more continuous, reliable and decision‑relevant information to end users involved in adaptation planning and preparedness for extreme hazards.
Dr Antje Weisheimer, leader of the Predictability of Weather and Climate Group at the University of Oxford, who leads the temporal merging task of ASPECT, concluded: “Temporal combining is a rapidly evolving field with diverse and complementary approaches to bridging temporal gaps in climate information”. Dr Beena Balan Sarojini, an ASPECT scientist at the University of Oxford added: “The workshop also identified knowledge gaps in translating methodological research and development into practical, real‑world use cases, and co‑produced collaborative priorities for the remainder of the project to further advance this emerging field and contribute to climate services”.
