Paper Briefings
Paper briefings are short summaries prepared for publications from ASPECT researchers that are of societal, policy or sectoral interest. The briefings highlight key messages from the study, and potential implications or applications of the findings.
Anomalously Warm European Summers Predicted More Accurately by Considering Sub-Decadal North Atlantic Ocean Heat Accumulation
New research reveals how tracking heat buildup in the North Atlantic could improve forecasts of extreme European summer temperatures several years in advance. Context: Europe
Mitigation needed to avoid unprecedented multi-decadal North Atlantic Oscillation magnitude
A pivotal piece of research – published in the journal Nature Climate Change and produced with funding from the ASPECT program – has found that
Will 2024 be the first year that global temperature exceeds 1.5°C?
A recent study shows that 2024 will likely (76% chance) be a new record year, with a 1-in-3 chance of exceeding 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. Although a one-year temporary exceedance of 1.5°C would not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement target, this forecast highlights how close we are now to this threshold.
Multi-annual predictions of the frequency and intensity of daily temperature and precipitation extremes
Decadal predictions can provide relevant climate information for decision-making over multiple years. A recent study funded by ASPECT assesses the quality of multi-model decadal predictions of extreme temperature and precipitation.
